Arctic’s Last Ice Area could disappear much sooner than expected, scientists warn

ScienceAlert recently published an article highlighting new research on the Last Ice Area (LIA)—the Arctic region where sea ice was expected to persist the longest despite rising global temperatures. The LIA, located north of Greenland and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, has been considered a crucial refuge for ice-dependent species such as polar bears and seals, as well as an important environmental stabilizer in the face of climate change. However, new climate models now indicate that this supposedly resilient ice zone may vanish far sooner than previously estimated, raising serious concerns for the Arctic ecosystem and global climate patterns.

• High-resolution models that account for sea ice transport through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago suggest that the central Arctic Ocean could become seasonally ice-free as early as 2035. The remaining permanent ice in the LIA might vanish between 6 to 24 years thereafter.
• The disappearance of the LIA would have severe ecological consequences, as it serves as a critical habitat for polar bears, seals, and other Arctic species that rely on thick, multi-year ice. Indigenous communities that depend on the ice for hunting and cultural traditions would also face major disruptions.
• Previous projections underestimated the speed at which ice would be lost in this region. Scientists believed that remnants of permanent sea ice could persist well into the latter half of the 21st century, but new findings suggest a much shorter timeline.
• Researchers stress that the Arctic is warming at a much faster rate than the global average and the loss of the LIA could have far-reaching impacts, including altering ocean currents, weather patterns and global climate stability. As atmospheric scientist Bruno Tremblay from McGill University states: “Our findings were based on high-resolution models, which consider sea ice transport through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. These suggest the LIA may vanish much sooner than previously thought.”