The Northwest Passage’s potential and the geopolitical implications: Explainer

By Justin Barnes August 6, 2025
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With climate change accelerating and global interest in transiting the Passage rising, the unresolved debate over the Northwest Passage’s legal status could have geopolitical implications for North America and maritime claims elsewhere in the world.

Coast Guard Cutter Healy’s temporary regional dive locker team, conducts familiarization dive in the Chukchi Sea, August 5, 2021. During the Healy’s Northwest Passage deployment, they are operating within first year and multiyear ice throughout the Arctic and documenting how variable Arctic summer weather conditions impact Coast Guard operations. (Janessa Warschkow / U.S. Coast Guard)

This article was produced by the Arctic Initiative at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. Read it in full here.

The Northwest Passage (NWP or Passage) is a series of maritime routes that run through Canada’s Arctic Archipelago. European explorers began to seek the Passage in the 16th century as part of a shortcut between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans to enhance trade with Asia, but a navigable route eluded them until the early 20th century due to thick sea ice and challenging conditions. Meanwhile, Inuit have lived and successfully navigated the land, waters, and ice of the NWP for time immemorial.

In recent decades, technological advances paired with the impacts of climate change on sea ice have made transiting the NWP more feasible under certain conditions, renewing interest in the Passage for shipping, tourism, and access to Arctic resources. The NWP is often hailed as a potentially valuable shortcut between East Asia and Western Europe – shaving upwards of 7,000km (~3,480 nautical miles) off the route through the Panama Canal – but unreliable conditions, sparse infrastructure, and high risks make its real-world value far less certain.

With climate trends accelerating and global interest in the Arctic rising, interest in transiting the NWP for shipping or military purposes could reignite an unresolved – yet peacefully managed – debate between Canada and the United States on the legal status of the NWP.

Arctic Initiative Predoctoral Research Fellow Justin Barnes wrote this explainer ahead of participating in the course Arctic Future Pathfinders, a part of the One Ocean Expedition.