Russia’s Arctic route sells speed, at the planet’s expense

The opening of the Northern Sea Route is set to significantly reshape global shipping. Amid far-reaching Russian claims that the new route is a greener and more efficient solution to existing shipping routes, researchers continue to illuminate flaws and ignored nuances in the Russian narrative. 

A recent study published in Nature Communications by Pengjun Zhao, Yunlin Li, Caixia Zhang and co-authors examines how the opening of Arctic shipping routes is set to reshape not just the global shipping traffic, but global carbon emissions. The research points to possible environmental advantages from shorter routes, but also reveals hidden risks that complicate the promise of this new era in maritime trade.

The creation of the Northern Sea Route was made possible by significant reductions in Arctic sea ice in the warming region, allowing ships to traverse icy waters across Russia’s northern coast to connect the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.

Russia has seized this opportunity to market the route as cheaper, faster, and lower-emissions compared with longer alternatives such as the Suez or Panama canals.

The study found that while the route is a significantly shorter alternative that does promise environmental benefits, there are a number of challenges and complexities that require further understanding and oversight. 

Key Takeaways: 

• A Shorter Route Doesn’t Guarantee a Cleaner Route
  The Arctic shipping route can cut some journeys by up to 40%, particularly between Northern Europe and Northeast Asia, but efficiency gains may be offset by induced shipping demand and shifts in global fleet patterns.
• Arctic Emissions Could Surge
  Maritime emissions within the Arctic could rise sharply, from 0.22% to as much as 2.72% of global shipping emissions, creating a new climate hotspot.
• Heavy Emitters Set to Dominate
  Oil, gas, and chemical tankers are expected to make up the bulk of NSR traffic, amplifying the carbon footprint of rerouted shipping flows.
• Policy Matters More Than Distance Saved
  The study finds that relying on current IMO targets or Green Corridors only modestly reduces emissions. Only a robust Net-Zero strategy with cleaner fuels, caps, and regional implementation could fully offset added Arctic emissions.
• Risks of Carbon Inequality
  Route shifts may concentrate emissions in specific areas while reducing them elsewhere, creating localized “hot spots” of pollution exposure.
• Technological & Environmental Constraints
  Short-term fuel savings may be undermined by Arctic-specific challenges such as extreme weather, heavy fuel oils, spill risks, inadequate infrastructure, and regulatory gaps.

The findings in this study do support Russian claims that the Northern Sea Route is a shorter and cheaper alternative to existing shipping routes. However, the study is only the latest to sound the alarm over the potential environmental and safety risks inherent to the route. In recent weeks, the Bellona research group presented their findings from years of analysis into the dangers posed by the Northern Sea Route. See the video below for some of the main findings.