China increasingly acting independently of Russia in the Arctic, new study shows

A new study from the Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS) warns that China’s growing role in the Arctic is setting it on a path that could eventually put it at odds with Russia—a shift that could reshape the balance of influence in the region and pose fresh challenges for Western governments.

While Moscow has long been China’s key gateway to Arctic shipping and resources, the study finds that Beijing is steadily building the capacity to operate without Russian backing. China is developing its own network of infrastructure investments, scientific research and political relationships with Arctic states, which could allow it to pursue interests that diverge from Moscow’s over time.

“Media narratives often highlight the growing alignment between China and Russia in the Arctic and the potential threat this poses to other states. Yet the partnership remains constrained by diverging priorities, Russia’s wariness of Chinese influence, and China’s reluctance to expose itself to sanctions or engage in risky ventures,” the study claims.

China has officially designated itself a “near-Arctic state” and has stepped up scientific expeditions, shipping ventures along the Northern Sea Route and partnerships with Arctic states including investments in ports, energy projects and research stations. These activities, DIIS researchers say, are laying the groundwork for Beijing to exert influence more independently, even in areas where Russian cooperation is minimal.

The study notes that while China and Russia currently share an interest in challenging Western dominance in the Arctic, their long-term goals differ. Beijing is pushing for diversified shipping routes, wider access to Arctic resources and a greater voice in Arctic governance—ambitions that could compete with Moscow’s own priorities and control over the region’s sea lanes.

For the West, the findings suggest that Arctic strategies cannot focus solely on countering Russia. Policymakers will also need to prepare for China emerging as a standalone power with its own strategic agenda, one that may not align neatly with Moscow’s and could complicate the geopolitics of the far north even further.