In Canada’s North, the U.S. now ranks as the top Arctic threat

Residents of the Canadian Arctic increasingly see the United States as the most serious threat to their region, edging out Russia in a new survey of northern communities.

Preliminary results from the first wave of the Annual Canadian Arctic Survey — conducted by researchers Mathieu Landriault of the Observatory on Politics and Security in the Arctic and Mirva Salminen of the Arctic University of Norway — polled 609 residents across Yukon, the Northwest Territories and Nunavut. Asked to identify the most serious threat to the Canadian Arctic, 37.1% named the United States, 35.3% named Russia, and 17.1% pointed to China.

The findings highlight a striking perception shift inside Canada’s Arctic, where day-to-day experience with sovereignty, security and infrastructure is closest to the front line. An overwhelming 85% of respondents said Canada should actively assert its sovereignty and back up those statements with action, warning that inaction could lead to territorial losses.

The authors describe these figures as preliminary, but the topline numbers suggest northern residents view risks through a pragmatic lens shaped by geography and policy. The United States, Canada’s closest ally and Arctic neighbor via Alaska, is also the most commonly cited source of pressure in the region, whether over navigation rights, continental defense or resource development. Russia remains nearly tied as a perceived threat amid ongoing militarization in the High North and the collapse of most Arctic cooperation since 2022. China trails but still registers for nearly one in five respondents.

Nail Farkhatdinov, a sociologist and analyst at the research group Arctida, urged caution in reading too much into cross-border comparisons without equivalent data from the Russian Arctic, noting that similar public polling there tends to focus on quality of life and domestic policy rather than international risk.

“Public opinion often seems contradictory, and it is crucial to understand what lies behind survey generalizations,” he said.

Beyond geopolitics, the survey team also asked about attitudes toward industrial activity and environmental issues, areas that shape how communities weigh development against stewardship. While those results were not detailed in the preliminary summary, the strong call for Ottawa to assert sovereignty dovetails with long-running northern demands for better infrastructure, search-and-rescue capacity and presence, both civilian and military, across the Arctic Archipelago and Northwest Passage.