Danish intelligence recasts U.S. as security challenge in ‘seismic shift’

Last week the Danish Defence Intelligence Service released its latest outlook report, a document that for the first time openly frames the United States as a potential challenge to Danish interests and security, not only in the Arctic but more broadly.

“I would call it almost a seismic shift,” said Jon Rahbek-Clemmensen, associate professor at the Royal Danish Defence College. “Previously, these publications have always focused on Russia and China. This time around, they are talking about how the U.S. is a challenge. That is a significant change.”

The shift is explicit in the report’s language. In its assessment, Danish intelligence states:

“The United States now uses its economic and technological power as a political instrument, including toward allies and partners.”

That wording marks a clear departure from earlier assessments, which consistently treated Washington as a stabilizing force while focusing concern on Russia and China.

Rahbek-Clemmensen said the shift reflects changes in U.S. strategic thinking that Danish authorities can no longer ignore. He pointed to the latest U.S. National Security Strategy, which identifies Europe not only as a partner but also as a potential competitor in key economic and technological domains.

“When Europe is singled out in a U.S. national security strategy as a potential competitor, it would be strange if that did not have consequences for how Danish intelligence assesses the United States,” he said.

Denmark has historically viewed the United States as its closest and most reliable ally, backing U.S.-led military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and aligning closely with Washington on security policy. Rahbek-Clemmensen described Denmark as having been “perhaps the most pro-American European country” during that period.

He said that era should now be seen as over. While the United States remains an essential partner, Denmark can no longer assume the kind of privileged or predictable relationship with Washington that once underpinned its foreign and security policy.

“The situation has become more complicated than it used to be,” he said. “The fact that the U.S. now challenges Danish control over Greenland creates a lot of problems for Denmark.”

Greenland sits at the center of that reassessment, but Rahbek-Clemmensen stressed that the underlying issue goes beyond geography. Denmark, he said, is unusually exposed in an asymmetric relationship with a superpower willing to apply pressure even to close allies.

“Unlike most other European countries, Denmark has this challenge in Greenland, where Denmark is home alone with the Americans,” he said. “The fact that the U.S. openly challenges Danish sovereignty in Greenland creates an incredibly complicated situation.”

Rahbek-Clemmensen said Denmark’s options for responding are limited. He described a three-track approach: keeping Greenland politically aligned with Denmark, attempting to deter U.S. escalation through diplomacy and allied support and increasing Danish military investment in Greenland and the wider North Atlantic.

“The big fear in Denmark is that the U.S. will impose economic sanctions, increase influence operations or, in a worst-case scenario, actually occupy Greenland,” he said. “It is really, really difficult for Denmark to deter that.”

He argued that the current pressure on Greenland is driven less by strategic necessity than by President Donald Trump’s personal ambitions.

“If you look at U.S. strategic interests in Greenland, I really struggle to see what the U.S. is gaining from all of this,” he said. “I think it has more to do with the prestige of expanding U.S. territory than with geopolitics.”

Against that backdrop, Rahbek-Clemmensen said the recent appointment of Thomas Emanuel Dans as chair of the U.S. Arctic Research Commission should be read as a political signal.

“When you place a person like that in that role, it’s a clear indicator that the administration still prioritizes getting a hold of Greenland,” he said.

Dans, a Trump ally associated with efforts to expand U.S. influence in Greenland, now leads a body that advises the U.S. president and Congress on Arctic research and policy. For Rahbek-Clemmensen, the appointment underscores the intelligence report’s core conclusion: uncertainty about U.S. intentions is no longer theoretical, but a central factor shaping how Denmark assesses its own security.