Greenland tensions cast heavy mood over Arctic Frontiers, says Sfraga

Mike Sfraga, former U.S. ambassador-at-large to the Arctic under the Biden administration and former director of the University of Alaska’s Polar Institute, told Arctic Today that the Trump administration’s approach to Greenland has triggered a noticeable shift in tone among European allies at this year’s Arctic Frontiers conference in Tromsø.

“Ever since the Greenland dialogue has elevated, my colleagues are telling me that they question our commitment,” Sfraga said. “It’s not that they think we’re going to abandon NATO or Europe entirely, but there’s a real worry about whether the US will remain a predictable and reliable ally in the long term.”

Sfraga described European counterparts as feeling increasingly sidelined and patronized, remarking that he noted a palpable change in atmosphere from previous years.

“They feel as if they are being lectured to, maybe perhaps not appreciated,” he said.

Sfraga said the friction goes deeper than the Greenland dispute itself, reflecting a widening gap between the Trump administration’s more transactional, sphere-of-influence approach and the rules-based order that many European allies still see as the foundation of their security.

“It seems to be the worldview is that we have spheres of influence,” he said of the Trump administration’s approach. “They say it’s a Western hemisphere in North America, and that needs to be in their control. I don’t believe in spheres of influence. I believe in the international rules-based order.”

He pointed to Denmark as a prime example of fraying trust, linking the unease to recent statements from Washington that have questioned Europe’s commitment to NATO and unsettled even long-standing allies.

“It’s remarkable and it’s sad,” Sfraga said. “The Danes are founding members of NATO. They were there on 9/11 when we called them. They were the first country ever to invoke Article 5. They bled with us in Afghanistan. It’s sad that a good friend they now view as very suspicious and not in a way they can rely upon.”

While European allies still consider the US indispensable, Sfraga said they are preparing for a future where they may need to act more independently.

“They’ve all reiterated how important the United States is to them,” he said. “But they’re also clear that they need to prepare to do more on their own.”

Despite the growing unease, Sfraga said European allies do not view the relationship as collapsing outright, but as slowly fraying under pressure, leaving them searching for ways to repair the damage.

“I don’t think they feel like a rupture,” he said. “I think they feel it’s fraying, and they’re trying to figure out ways that they can repair that fray.”

Despite political tensions, Sfraga emphasized the continued importance of multilateral platforms like the Arctic Council for scientific cooperation.

“The Arctic Council is more important than ever now,” he said. “It’s keeping us working together at the technical level and the research being done is critical to understanding the changes in the Arctic.”

At the conference, much of the discussion has revolved around the future of multilateralism and the institutions that sustain international cooperation, and the shift in tone was hard to miss, Sfraga said. Conversations that in previous years focused on cooperation, science and development were now dominated by questions about Greenland, alliances and the durability of the rules-based order.

“It’s heavy,” he said. “There’s a heavy atmosphere here.”