🇬🇱 Morningstar DBRS comments on agreement between Denmark and the U.S. on Greenland

September 21, 2026

On September 18, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. has reached an agreement with the Kingdom of Denmark over Greenland, which is expected to be signed on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. While key details are still unclear, public statements by government officials indicate that the agreement relates to 1) enhanced security and defense cooperation in Greenland, 2) restricted access of non-NATO countries to Greenland, and 3) the preservation of Danish and Greenlandic sovereignty.

The agreement primarily permits the U.S. to increase its military presence in Greenland. After operating several bases in Greenland during the Cold War, the U.S. military presence in Greenland is currently confined to the Pituffik Space Base (formerly Thule Air Base). Increased military presence in Greenland would further the U.S. and NATO’s geostrategic advantage in the North Atlantic. Greenland offers maritime control over new shipping routes between East Asia and Europe.

The agreement also bars non-NATO countries from establishing military bases in Greenland and conducting investments in sensitive sectors such as minerals and mining. Of most importance to the European Union, the agreement recognizes the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Denmark and respects Greenland’s right to self-determination.

Morningstar DBRS takes the view that the agreement is likely to lower tensions between the Kingdom of Denmark and the U.S. Nevertheless, a renewed increase in tensions remains an important downside risk in the coming years. This applies particularly to minerals exploration as local authorities in Greenland have adopted a cautious approach to licensing mining activities due to environmental concerns in recent years.

The legal and regulatory authority for minerals resource activities has been with Greenland’s government since 2010. Morningstar DBRS currently rates the Kingdom of Denmark at AAA with a Stable trend; there are no credit rating implications at this time.

“We welcome any outcome that lowers political tensions between Denmark and the U.S.,” said Yesenn El-Radhi, Senior Vice President of the Sovereign Group at Morningstar DBRS. “Yet, a renewed increase in tension remains an important downside risk in coming years. This applies particularly to minerals exploration as Greenlandic authorities have typically adopted a more cautious stance to granting exploration licenses than U.S. regulators.”

Contact

Yesenn El-Radhi
Senior Vice President
+49 (69) 8088 3517
[email protected]

Elisabeth Rudman
Managing Director
+44 (20) 7855 6655
[email protected]

For more information, visit Morningstar DBRS.

Originally published on September 21, 2026 by Morningstar DBRS.